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A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?

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Cite

Goldberg, J., Hayes, S., Warren, M., & Isgur, S. (2026, October 16). A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave? The Dispatch. https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/a-blue-wave-or-an-anti-incumbent-wave/

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Dispatch · collected 2026-10-16 · by Jonah Goldberg, Steve Hayes, Michael Warren, Sarah Isgur

Quick Summary

Steve Hayes hosts a podcast discussion about the midterms with guests Sarah Isgur, Jonah Goldberg, and Mike Warren, focusing on whether there will be significant changes in the midterm elections due to anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment. The conversation also delves into the competitiveness of the South Carolina Senate race and touches briefly on legal topics.
Written by AI on 2026-10-16, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On today's roundtable discussion on The Dispatch Podcast, hosts Steve Hayes, Sarah Isgur, Mike Warren, and guest Jonah Goldberg explore whether the upcoming midterm elections will see a blue wave, a rogue wave, or another outcome due to widespread anti-incumbent sentiment. They discuss how many Americans desire substantial change or total upheaval in these elections. The conversation also delves into the competitiveness of the South Carolina Senate race and the impact of former President Trump's influence on the GOP, particularly noting that his ego might be hurting Republican candidates.

Written for “Midterm Elections Forecast” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Forecast
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Guardian
Hedges 1 of 6 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterms; one provides an overview and predictions, while the other focuses on a podcast discussion about anti-incumbent sentiment.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 12 of 129 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections and do not describe the same specific incident.”
NPR
Hedges 1 of 24 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss general themes related to midterms but describe different content: one about interpreting polls, the other about political sentiment and anti-incumbent wave.”
NBC News
Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterms and do not focus on the same specific incident or time.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 5 of 37 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss similar themes (midterm elections and potential Democratic wave), but they are not reporting on the exact same incident or occurrence.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 15 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss voter sentiment around midterms but describe different aspects: one is a poll result, while the other is commentary and discussion about potential trends.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
9
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 9 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Dispatch's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-16 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Dispatch · 404 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Jonah Goldberg
60 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 I wouldn't put them in the book if I didn't think they were at least good.
2026-10-31 · assertive framing · Of Friends and Enemies | Ruminant
🔮 Jonah Goldberg convenes with Thomas Chatterton Williams to dissect and diagnose the problems plaguing America’s oldest ally, France.
🔮 “A pardon for all junior administration personnel is viewed as unlikely,” one source told the Washington Sun, “but the president could issue blanket pardons for all employees involved in particular policy areas, such as deportations, war or trade.”
2026-10-28 · mixed framing · How to Rein In Trump Without Impeaching Him
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad against Amy Acton and Williamson's reporting from Texas.
2026-10-23 · assertive framing · Vivek Ramaswamy’s Vicious Attack Ad May Backfire
🔮 Conventional wisdom will tell you to be well rested and sober before an interview to ensure peak performance.
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Ladies and gentlemen, could I please have your attention?
🔮 For reasons that will baffle my many detractors, I am often asked for advice about being an opinion journalist.
2026-10-14 · assertive framing · When Politicians Are Entirely Too Online
Also by Jonah Goldberg
Of Friends and Enemies | Ruminant
2026-10-31 · The Dispatch
Getting a Jump on the Blame Game
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 60 articles by Jonah Goldberg →
Steve Hayes
13 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad against Amy Acton and Williamson's reporting from Texas.
2026-10-23 · assertive framing · Vivek Ramaswamy’s Vicious Attack Ad May Backfire
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 I will remember, I came out of my office, and I saw a couple of secretaries.
2026-09-11 · assertive framing · Did We Win the War on Terror?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Michael Reneau to discuss our latest editorial on a post-Trump reality, comments by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff to Vladimir Putin as the U.S. pursues negotiations for an end to the Ukraine war, and finally, a Labor Day edition of Not Worth Your Time.
2026-09-08 · assertive framing · After Trump
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 We have seen over the past several weeks, but in particular over the past week, a spate of articles in virtually every publication, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, elsewhere, noting the sort of heightened battles, not even battles, heightened concern about data centers and how it's driving political debates and campaigns in some areas and states and districts that we would expect, and probably some areas and states and campaigns that we wouldn't expect.
2026-08-28 · assertive framing · The AI Data Center Moral Panic
Also by Steve Hayes
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
2026-10-27 · The Dispatch
What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
2026-10-09 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 13 articles by Steve Hayes →
Michael Warren
12 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg and Kevin Williamson to discuss Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt’s failed attempt at setting a perjury trap and the Trump administration’s AI luncheon.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss why GOP midterm candidates aren’t heeding President Donald Trump’s electoral advice, as well as Texas Railroad Commission candidate Bo French’s racist tweet about a University of Texas football game.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Why GOP Candidates Are Ignoring Trump
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the U.S. crossing the $40 trillion debt threshold and the prospect of “growing our way out of it.”
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · How The U.S. Racked Up Its $40 Trillion Debt
Also by Michael Warren
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
2026-10-09 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 12 articles by Michael Warren →
Sarah Isgur
16 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
🔮 Another statement on the denial of cert by Justices Sotomayor and Gorsuch that's gonna set our libertarian friends jumping out of second-floor windows.
2026-10-22 · assertive framing · Who’s the Loneliest Supreme Court Justice?
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 And have we got maybe the most thrilling, sexiest advisory opinions to date on sealing orders.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · The Secrecy in Courts Dilemma
🔮 Sarah Isgur and David French discuss what’s on the Supreme Court’s docket, debate whether anonymous speech is protected by the First Amendment, and undergo a grim historical review of the death penalty after the Pentagon’s announcement that an execution will be livestreamed.
2026-10-13 · assertive framing · Is Spending Money Protected Speech?
🔮 The Agenda: –An appropriate use of AI by Justice Alito? –“I don’t think Justice Alito has DraftKings on his phone.” –Will Ashcroft v. Free Speech Coalition ever get overturned?
2026-10-08 · assertive framing · SUNCOR Gets Complicated
🔮 So, the judge is, is calling down the names, and he gets to me, and I go up and I say, "Your Honor, you know, look, I could definitely be fair.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Not a MAGA Court
🔮 The second time, maybe we did, but it doesn't matter because now the Eighth Circuit has weighed in.
2026-09-24 · assertive framing · Third Time’s the Charm?
🔮 [applause] [chuckles] We will be doing our traditional term preview, where we try to go through the cases that are scheduled thus far, but in a fun way, and not just a death march through the schedule.
2026-09-17 · assertive framing · Looking Ahead to the Supreme Court Term
🔮 We will start with September 11th and some of the things that Justice Kavanaugh said while reflecting on that day in the White House, and some of the reactions to what Justice Kavanaugh said reflecting on that day in the White House, as well as I will pick a fight with David over the redistricting shenanigans in Missouri.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Barely Averting a Constitutional Crisis
Also by Sarah Isgur
Election Shenanigans
2026-10-27 · The Dispatch
Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
2026-10-27 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 16 articles by Sarah Isgur →

Topics

Americans GOP SCOTUSblog Senate South Carolina

Subjects

Sarah Isgur PERSON · 3× Jonah Goldberg PERSON · 2× Mike Warren PERSON · 2× Senate ORG · 2× South Carolina GPE · 2× Steve Hayes PERSON · 2× Americans NORP · 1× GOP ORG · 1× SCOTUSblog ORG · 1× Trump PERSON · 1×

Narrative

On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-16
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · The Dispatch
A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave? · assertive framing

Claims (9 extracted, 0 hedged)

Steve Hayes is joined by Sarah Isgur, Jonah Goldberg, and Mike Warren to discuss the state of the midterms and whether South Carolina is truly a competitive state in 2026. asserted
Carolina → join → 2026
The Agenda: —The first true “wave?” —How Trump’s ego is hurting the GOP —Redistricted districts Show notes: [upbeat music] Welcome to "The Dispatch Podcast." asserted
ego → hurt → Podcast
On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely. asserted
sentiment → discuss → wave
I'm joined today by Dispatch Editor in Chief Jonah Goldberg, Advisory Opinions Host and SCOTUSblog Editor Sarah Isgur, and Politics Editor and author of our must-read Next Right newsletter, Mike Warren. asserted
I → join → newsletter
Let's dive right in. asserted
's → let → ?
Mike, we're always happy to have you join us for the podcast, but we're especially grateful for Jonah joining us today, coming off of a hellish trip back from Tulsa, Oklahoma, and three hours of sleep. asserted
Jonah → have → sleep
And we're excited to welcome back Sarah Isgur to weigh in on politics. asserted
we → welcome → politics
Sarah, you've been focused of late on the law and SCOTUS blogging and advisory opinioning, but we wanna pull you back in and do some politics today, so thanks for making time. asserted
we → focus → time
I'm living in Texas now, and anytime you try to watch any college football game, wall-to-wall Senate ads, so I feel particularly qualified to join today. asserted
I → live → wall
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