Photo via The Dispatch

What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong

Read the original at The Dispatch ↗
Cite

Goldberg, J., Hayes, S., Warren, M., & Stirewalt, C. (2026, October 9). What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong. The Dispatch. https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/what-midterm-polling-may-be-getting-wrong/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

The Dispatch · collected 2026-10-09 · by Jonah Goldberg, Steve Hayes, Michael Warren, Chris Stirewalt

Quick Summary

Steve Hayes hosts a podcast where experts discuss midterm election polls and their reliability. Guests include Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt, who analyze recent polls indicating potential shifts in traditionally red states towards Democratic candidates. The discussion centers on interpreting these polls amidst concerns about historical undercounting of Republican voters and the impact of redistricting efforts on upcoming elections.
Written by AI on 2026-10-09, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On a recent episode of The Dispatch Podcast, Steve Hayes discussed midterm election projections less than one month before voting day. Joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt, they analyzed Republican redistricting efforts and their potential to save seats or backfire. They also debated whether Democrats can moderate post-elections and what a Democrat-controlled Congress might look like. The conversation covered uncertainties in current polling accuracy amidst upcoming elections on November 8.

Written for “Midterm Elections Polling Error” on 2026-10-30, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Polling Error
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 3% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
CBS News
Hedges 21 of 440 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A describes a specific broadcast episode of 'Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,' while Article B discusses midterm elections on a different podcast.”
10/4: Face The Nation Different event
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different shows and discussions on separate dates.”
TIME
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 37 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections and do not focus on the same specific incident.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 32 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm election expectations and concerns, with Article A focusing on Democrats' potential complacency issues and Article B discussing a broader panel discussion on midterms.”
Fox News
Hedges 8 of 42 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss general themes around midterm elections but describe different content and focus.”
NBC News
Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections on distinct dates and with different hosts and formats.”
Washington Examiner
Hedges 0 of 14 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections without describing the same specific incident or occurrence.”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans strongly left Hedges 10 of 49 claims Outlet record 74/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections; one focuses on polling data suggesting a surge for Democrats, while the other is about a podcast discussing broader implications and strategies.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 36 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections and political trends without describing the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 6 of 29 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm polling and analysis, not a single specific event or incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
30
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
3%
1 of 30 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Dispatch's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-09 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Dispatch · 396 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Jonah Goldberg
58 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Jonah Goldberg convenes with Thomas Chatterton Williams to dissect and diagnose the problems plaguing America’s oldest ally, France.
🔮 “A pardon for all junior administration personnel is viewed as unlikely,” one source told the Washington Sun, “but the president could issue blanket pardons for all employees involved in particular policy areas, such as deportations, war or trade.”
2026-10-28 · mixed framing · How to Rein In Trump Without Impeaching Him
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad against Amy Acton and Williamson's reporting from Texas.
2026-10-23 · assertive framing · Vivek Ramaswamy’s Vicious Attack Ad May Backfire
🔮 Conventional wisdom will tell you to be well rested and sober before an interview to ensure peak performance.
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Ladies and gentlemen, could I please have your attention?
🔮 For reasons that will baffle my many detractors, I am often asked for advice about being an opinion journalist.
2026-10-14 · assertive framing · When Politicians Are Entirely Too Online
🔮 And I figure if it's really important, Steve or Declan or somebody will send it to me, or I'll hear about it or whatever.
2026-10-10 · assertive framing · Modernity’s Big Bang | Ruminant
Also by Jonah Goldberg
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 58 articles by Jonah Goldberg →
Steve Hayes
13 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad against Amy Acton and Williamson's reporting from Texas.
2026-10-23 · assertive framing · Vivek Ramaswamy’s Vicious Attack Ad May Backfire
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 I will remember, I came out of my office, and I saw a couple of secretaries.
2026-09-11 · assertive framing · Did We Win the War on Terror?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Michael Reneau to discuss our latest editorial on a post-Trump reality, comments by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff to Vladimir Putin as the U.S. pursues negotiations for an end to the Ukraine war, and finally, a Labor Day edition of Not Worth Your Time.
2026-09-08 · assertive framing · After Trump
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 We have seen over the past several weeks, but in particular over the past week, a spate of articles in virtually every publication, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, elsewhere, noting the sort of heightened battles, not even battles, heightened concern about data centers and how it's driving political debates and campaigns in some areas and states and districts that we would expect, and probably some areas and states and campaigns that we wouldn't expect.
2026-08-28 · assertive framing · The AI Data Center Moral Panic
Also by Steve Hayes
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
2026-10-27 · The Dispatch
A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
2026-10-16 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 13 articles by Steve Hayes →
Michael Warren
12 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg and Kevin Williamson to discuss Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt’s failed attempt at setting a perjury trap and the Trump administration’s AI luncheon.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss why GOP midterm candidates aren’t heeding President Donald Trump’s electoral advice, as well as Texas Railroad Commission candidate Bo French’s racist tweet about a University of Texas football game.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Why GOP Candidates Are Ignoring Trump
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the U.S. crossing the $40 trillion debt threshold and the prospect of “growing our way out of it.”
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · How The U.S. Racked Up Its $40 Trillion Debt
Also by Michael Warren
Democrats Play Dirty in Alaska
2026-10-30 · The Dispatch
A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
2026-10-16 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 12 articles by Michael Warren →
Chris Stirewalt
2 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the Democrats maintain their momentum, or could Republicans defy expectations?
2026-10-27 · mixed framing · Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
Also by Chris Stirewalt
Can Democrats Maintain Their Momentum?
2026-10-27 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

CNN Democratic Democrats Republicans Senate

Subjects

CNN ORG · 6× Chris Stirewalt PERSON · 3× Jonah Goldberg PERSON · 3× Democratic NORP · 2× Democrats NORP · 2× Jonah PERSON · 2× Mike Warren PERSON · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Senate ORG · 2× Steve Hayes PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt to discuss how the midterms are shaping up less than one month out and what to expect from a Democrat-controlled Congress.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-09
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · The Dispatch
What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong · assertive framing

Claims (30 extracted, 1 hedged)

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt to discuss how the midterms are shaping up less than one month out and what to expect from a Democrat-controlled Congress. asserted
midterms → join → Congress
The Agenda: —GOP redistricting —2028 Democratic candidates —Can Democrats moderate? —A Democratic Congress Show notes: [instrumental music] Welcome to the Dispatch Podcast. asserted
Democrats → moderate → Podcast
On today's round table, we take a big picture look at the midterms, which are now less than a month out. asserted
which → take → midterms
Can the Republicans hold onto the Senate? asserted
Republicans → hold → Senate
Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire? asserted
that → save → seats
And are the polls we're seeing reliable? asserted
we → see → ?
A warning for sensitive listeners, if you're eating while listening, you might wanna pause the podcast until you finish up. uncertain
you → eat → podcast
I'm joined today by Dispatch Editor-in-Chief, Jonah Goldberg, Politics Editor, Mike Warren, and Politics Editor for NewsNation and contributing writer for The Dispatch, Chris Stirewalt. asserted
I → join → Dispatch
Let's dive right in. asserted
's → let → ?
[instrumental music] Chris Stirewalt, I wanna start with you. asserted
I → start → you
The headline over the news is, "Two deep red states are in play as Democrats eye path to Senate majority." asserted
Democrats → eye → majority
I'm not gonna ask you about the races. asserted
I → go → races
I'm gonna ask you about the polls. asserted
I → go → polls
You have been doing this for longer than any of us. asserted
You → do → us
You've read probably 10 times the number of polls carefully that Jonah, Mike, and I have even skimmed. asserted
Jonah → read → that
You know what you're talking about when it comes to polling. asserted
it → know → polling
When you see a headline like that and you click in and you do read the polls, what's your reaction? asserted
reaction → see → polls
How do you read a poll in today's environment? asserted
you → read → environment
Do you look at those numbers and say, "Take it to the bank. asserted
you → look → bank
This is exactly how the race is going to turn out"? asserted
race → go → ?
Or do you say, "We can't trust this stuff. asserted
We → say → stuff
I don't know what I can believe"? asserted
I → know → what
How do you look at polls? asserted
you → look → polls
There were five polls that came out this past weekend in the New York Times. asserted
that → be → Times
What's your first reaction when you read a poll? asserted
you → read → poll
How are you gonna make me talk about CNN polling with my friend, Jonah Goldberg? asserted
me → go → friend
I mean, he-- asserted
I → mean → ?
Look, he is loyal to CNN. asserted
he → look → CNN
I assume he wants to remain there. asserted
he → assume → ?
He does a good job when he goes on CNN, but he, he's not gonna upbraid you for criticizing a CNN poll or any other poll. asserted
he → do → poll
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support