Explainer-Will a new leader and a new name boost the rebellion in eastern Congo?
asserted
leader → boost → Congo
The former president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Joseph Kabila, took over leadership of rebel forces occupying eastern regions this week, in the most significant shake-up of the uprising in years.
asserted
president → take → years
The move gives the rebels a highly prominent Congolese figurehead and could boost their efforts to present themselves as a national movement rather than a Rwandan proxy, diplomats, rebel sources and analysts said.
The big questions now are whether Kabila can translate his political stature and regional connections into broader support for the rebellion, and whether his leadership will significantly alter the balance of power on the ground in the fractured country.
uncertain
leadership → give → country
WHAT DOES KABILA'S LEADERSHIP CHANGE?
asserted
LEADERSHIP → change → WHAT
After Monday's announcement of Kabila's new role, the rebels — an alliance of the Alliance Fleuve Congo coalition and the M23 armed group — said they would now be known as the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN).
asserted
they → say → Nation
The name suggests a greater focus on national Congolese, not regional, affairs.
uncertain
name → suggest → affairs
Even before the leadership change, the rebels said their main aim was to remove Congo's current president, Felix Tshisekedi, from power, accusing his administration of corruption, discriminatory policies and crackdowns on opponents.
But UN experts and analysts said the violence has been primarily driven by long conflicts over power, identity and resources dating back to the 1990s genocide in neighbouring Rwanda and even earlier.
asserted
violence → say → Rwanda
Western countries and UN experts have accused Kigali of backing M23.
asserted
countries → accuse → M23
Rwanda denies the allegations, but has acknowledged coordinating with the rebels on security matters.
asserted
Rwanda → deny → matters
Much of the rebel leadership remains in place.
asserted
Much → remain → place
Kabila takes over as president, while former Alliance Fleuve Congo coordinator Corneille Nangaa and M23 political leader Bertrand Bisimwa become vice presidents.
asserted
Nangaa → take → president
Veteran M23 leader Sultani Makenga also takes a vice-presidential role, and remains chief of the rebel armed wing, preserving his central role in the movement.
asserted
Makenga → take → movement
WHY IS KABILA STILL IMPORTANT YEARS AFTER HE LEFT POWER?
asserted
HE → leave → POWER
The appointment of Kabila — who led Congo from 2001 to 2019 — puts a high-profile Congolese face on the rebellion.
asserted
who → lead → rebellion
It could also broaden the rebellion's appeal beyond its eastern stronghold.
uncertain
It → broaden → stronghold
Kabila is from the southern Katanga region, where there is mounting resentment towards the administration of his successor as president, Tshisekedi.
asserted
Kabila → be → president
But the rebellion has not yet reached the province.
asserted
rebellion → reach → province
Kabila also brings greater political weight than Nangaa, as well as influential connections in Congo and beyond, particularly in Namibia, Kenya, South Africa and other parts of the region, which he regularly visits.
asserted
he → bring → which
But it is not yet clear if they would translate into tangible support.
asserted
they → translate → support
HOW WILL THIS AFFECT THE REBELLION ON THE GROUND?
asserted
THIS → affect → GROUND
It remains to be seen how much support Kabila will be able to rally around the rebellion.
asserted
Kabila → remain → rebellion
After remaining in power for two years beyond his mandate, Kabila left office deeply unpopular in much of Congo, including in Katanga.
asserted
Kabila → remain → Katanga
His political network has weakened in recent years.
asserted
network → weaken → years
Many former allies have switched allegiance to Tshisekedi, gone into exile or been imprisoned.
asserted
allies → switch → exile
Since Monday's announcement, several prominent figures from his political camp have publicly broken ranks with him.
asserted
figures → break → him
A Congolese court sentenced Kabila to death in absentia for treason a year ago after allegations that he had joined the rebels.
asserted
he → sentence → rebels
He was also placed under US sanctions in April for providing material support to the rebels and destabilizing eastern Congo.
asserted
He → place → Congo
A 2021 investigation by international media outlets and anti-corruption groups based on millions of leaked bank documents showed that Kabila and his family amassed significant wealth during his nearly two decades in power.
asserted
Kabila → base → power
It is not clear where this money is held and how he could mobilise it.
uncertain
he → hold → it
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PEACE TALKS?
asserted
THIS → mean → TALKS
AFC/M23 had been negotiating with the Congolese government in Qatari-mediated talks and signed a declaration last year committing both sides to a permanent ceasefire and broader peace negotiations.
asserted
M23 → negotiate → ceasefire
The FRN said on Wednesday it "assumes all of the rights, obligations, and commitments" of AFC/M23, "including those undertaken in the context of the Doha negotiations."
asserted
it → say → negotiations
At a UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday, Congo stressed the need for all parties to make good on promises, while the US called for the pursuit of negotiations.
asserted
US → stress → negotiations
It remains unclear how much either side is committed to the peace process, with both blaming the other for the continued fighting.
uncertain
both → remain → fighting
The Aporia
