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Trump’s approval rating drops to 36% two weeks before midterms, poll finds

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Baio, A. (2026, October 21). Trump’s approval rating drops to 36% two weeks before midterms, poll finds. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/21/trump-approval-rating-midterms-poll

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The Guardian · collected 2026-10-21 · by Ariana Baio

Quick Summary

Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to 36% according to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted just two weeks before the midterm elections, marking his lowest recorded approval since the start of the survey. The poll surveyed approximately 3,494 likely voters and found that 59% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, with significant dissatisfaction over economic issues like gas prices (73% disapproval), cost of living (69%), and the economy (64%). Additionally, 65% disapproved of his handling of the Iran war. These findings suggest a challenging electoral landscape for Republicans as Democrats capitalize on voter concerns about rising costs and inflation to attract independent voters.
Written by AI on 2026-10-21, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of October 21, 2026, President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to 36% according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, marking his lowest recorded approval rating ahead of the midterm elections. The survey, which polled approximately 3,494 likely voters, showed that 59% disapproved of his job performance and 52% planned to vote for Democratic candidates in the upcoming election. Voters expressed frustration with Trump's handling of economic issues, rising gas prices, and the war in Iran, with approval ratings on these issues at 64%, 73%, and 65% disapproval respectively. Democrats now hold an 11-point advantage over Republicans in congressional preferences, suggesting a strong possibility that Democrats may reclaim control of Congress in the midterms.

Written for “Trump's Approval Rating Drops” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Trump's Approval Rating Drops
Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 3 claims Outlet record 69/100
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 51 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles report on different polls conducted at different times, covering similar but distinct aspects of President Trump's approval rating.”
The Guardian
Hedges 6 of 61 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Trump's declining approval ratings and his challenges in the midterms but describe distinct events occurring on different dates.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 48 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects related to Donald Trump's declining popularity but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 3 of 25 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the same topic, with Article A reporting on a poll's results and Article B focusing on Trump's reaction to those polls.”
NBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 55 claims Outlet record 78/100
“The articles describe different polls conducted at different times, although both relate to public sentiment towards President Donald Trump.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 22 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles describe similar but different polls conducted at different times, not the same specific occurrence.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 6 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles report different approval ratings at distinct points in time, suggesting they cover separate polls rather than the exact same incident.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 30 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different polls conducted at different times, showing varying approval ratings for President Trump.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 16 of 39 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles report on similar events but different polls conducted at different times, not the exact same occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted
14
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 14 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
66/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-21 · how these are computed

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Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 2929 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Ariana Baio
38 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 Donald Trump unveiled the delayed results of his $14m renovation of Washington DC’s Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool in what is expected to be his final press conference before voters head to the polls for the midterm elections.
🔮 “I will not bury my head in the sand and pretend I cannot read a calendar.”
🔮 A spokesperson for Crank’s campaign accused the Epstein-related ad of being “intentionally vague”, in a statement to the Washington Post, because his position was that he would vote against the file’s release until he could be confident that victim information was properly redacted.
🔮 man named Dan J Sullivan entered the Alaska Senate race as a Republican in May, challenging incumbent Republican Dan S Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola.
🔮 Peltola’s campaign had denied involvement in encouraging or soliciting Dan J Sullivan, a former educator with no political experience, to run against Dan S Sullivan, according to an Anchorage Daily News report from May.
🔮 In March, McMahon – who is seeking to permanently shutter the Department of Education – announced the department would relocate from its headquarters in the Lyndon B Johnson building to a smaller building in downtown Washington DC, which housed the US Agency for International Development (USAID) before the Trump administration closed it down.
🔮 The new memo, seen by CNN, states that the DHS will be solely responsible for the system’s “employment, use and development of tactics, techniques and procedures”.
🔮 Neil Bush said he sees Talarico as “a principled, pragmatic leader” who has a “willingness to listen to those with whom he disagrees”.
🔮 The new press secretary declined to explain why she took just three questions, but said going forward she would be “very well prepared on the briefing” and “would love, and do love, questions”.
🔮 The notice said law enforcement officials were working to intercept additional mail, but it is possible some could reach their destination.
Also by Ariana Baio
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 38 articles by Ariana Baio →

Topics

Democratic Democrats Iran Republicans the New York Times/Siena College

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 6× Iran GPE · 3× Democratic NORP · 2× Democrats NORP · 2× the New York Times/Siena College ORG · 2× Congress ORG · 1× Donald Trump’s PERSON · 1× Maga PERSON · 1× Republican NORP · 1× Republicans NORP · 1×

Narrative

Donald Trump’s approval rating sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterm elections, the lowest recorded in a poll by the New York Times/Siena College, with most respondents expressing frustration over his handling of the US economy, cost of living and Iran war.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-21

Claims (14 extracted, 0 hedged)

Donald Trump’s approval rating sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterm elections, the lowest recorded in a poll by the New York Times/Siena College, with most respondents expressing frustration over his handling of the US economy, cost of living and Iran war. asserted
respondents → sink → living
In an October survey of approximately 3,494 likely voters, 59% said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job, and 52% said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election. asserted
they → say → election
Much of the disapproval toward the US president was associated with frustrations over Trump’s handling of economic and cost-of-living-related issues. asserted
Much → associate → issues
On gas prices, 73% of registered voters said they disapproved; on the cost of living, 69% said they disapproved, and on the economy, 64% said they disapproved. asserted
they → register → economy
Approximately 65% said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, which has dragged on for nearly eight months and pushed gas and oil prices up. asserted
which → say → prices
The new polling numbers paint a gloomy picture for Trump and Republicans, who have embarked on an uphill battle to defeat Democrats in the upcoming midterms to maintain their majority control in Congress. asserted
who → paint → Congress
Trump, whose name recognition has largely helped Republican candidates in past elections, has been on the road campaigning for Maga-aligned candidates. asserted
recognition → help → candidates
However, some candidates have sought to distance themselves from the president, who has become increasingly unpopular over his economic policies. asserted
who → seek → policies
In 2024, Trump promised to lower everyday costs for Americans, keep inflation low and to keep the US from starting more wars abroad. asserted
Trump → promise → wars
But as of 21 October, gas prices were more than $4.25 a gallon, inflation increased to 3.7% last month and the president’s war with Iran remained steady. asserted
war → increase → Iran
Between September and October, the US president’s approval rating decreased by two percentage points in the New York Times/Siena College polls. asserted
rating → decrease → polls
Democratic candidates, meanwhile, have seized on the cost-of-living issues to appeal to independents and undecided voters, promising to rein in the president’s policies that have pushed costs up, such as tariffs. asserted
that → seize → tariffs
While polling from the New York Times/Siena College indicates Democrats have the upper hand headed into next month’s election, the party is still fighting against a massive financial war chest in competitive races in Texas, Ohio, New York, Alaska and Iowa. asserted
party → indicate → Texas
The Guardian has asked the White House for comment. asserted
Guardian → ask → comment
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