At some point, we might have to abandon the nautical metaphors because they can’t quite capture the scale of what’s happening.
uncertain
what → have → scale
It’s true the Trump administration got swamped this week, Donald Trump himself just about drowning in the Democratic swell.
asserted
Trump → ’ → swell
Georgia electing its first black female governor.
asserted
Georgia → elect → governor
Democrats winning a Senate seat in Kansas for the first time in 94 years.
asserted
Democrats → win → years
But the trouble with the metaphors is they assume something steady lies beneath.
asserted
something → assume → metaphors
They are measured against some idea of normality.
asserted
They → measure → normality
A wave, for example, is measured in relation to an otherwise consistent water level.
asserted
wave → measure → level
There hasn’t been for at least a decade since Trump upended American politics.
asserted
Trump → upend → politics
Then in 2024, Trump’s was more convincing again, delivering a greater share of the electoral college and both chambers of Congress.
asserted
Trump → deliver → Congress
His position mirrored Barack Obama’s dominance in 2008.
asserted
position → mirror → 2008
And it has unravelled in two years.
asserted
it → unravel → years
I think there are two implications here.
asserted
I → think → ?
One is that Trump’s victories, while sensational, have always been volatile, crystalising a broad mood of disillusionment and betrayal, but never quite establishing a broad, coherent movement beyond the MAGA devotees that are only one cohort of his vote.
asserted
that → crystalise → vote
The second is that there is little final or decisive about election results in this era.
asserted
second → be → era
They do not settle questions.
asserted
They → settle → questions
They just keep raising them.
asserted
They → keep → them
Both these were easy to overlook in the dizzy aftermath of Trump’s second victory.
asserted
these → overlook → victory
His 2024 coalition incorporated racial minorities (especially Asians and Latinos), young voters and women in numbers that were meant to be impossible.
asserted
that → incorporate → numbers
Shorn of Trump’s idiosyncrasies, it was a very conventional election result: a deeply unpopular administration, presiding over a cost of living crisis, lost decisively.
asserted
administration → Shorn → crisis
Trump’s win proved that 2016 was no aberration.
asserted
2016 → prove → ?
But it didn’t prove that he had built something invulnerable.
asserted
he → prove → something
This is not an administration that lost its way.
asserted
that → lose → way
It’s an administration whose own contradictions simply played out.
asserted
contradictions → ’ → ?
It was never clear how Trump would reconcile his populist, anti-elite message with his conspicuous fealty to the tech billionaires those same masses overwhelmingly distrust.
asserted
masses → reconcile → billionaires
And that arrangement became completely untenable as the spectre of AI came to haunt the consciousnesses of so many.
asserted
spectre → become → many
No issue unites the anger of a divided America as much as the growth of data centres across the country.
asserted
issue → unite → country
No issue has Trump more at odds with his own voters than the regulation of AI.
asserted
Trump → have → AI
And perhaps nowhere has Trump been so intransigent as on these issues: variously ignoring, berating and insulting people with AI concerns.
asserted
Trump → ignore → concerns
At first blush, it seems a radical departure for Trump: an incomprehensible own-goal from a president who made so much of his refusal to start wars, and his singular ability to end them.
asserted
who → seem → them
As far back as 1980, during the hostage crisis, Trump advocated sending American troops there.
asserted
Trump → advocate → troops
In 1988, he said if Iran fired a single bullet at “one of our men or ships” it would be enough for him to invade and take Kharg Island.
asserted
him → say → Island
His reasoning four decades ago was strikingly familiar: “They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools”.
asserted
us → beat → fools
The problem isn’t that Trump broke promises.
asserted
Trump → break → promises
Much like on tech, it’s that Trump built his worldview on an untenable fault-line: an anti-war position in general combined with a long-term pro-war position on Iran.
asserted
Trump → ’ → Iran
If Trump has broken promises, they are more about results than policy.
asserted
they → break → policy
Some of it reflects a global problem bedevilling most advanced economies, including our own.
asserted
Some → reflect → own
None of it suits Trump, presiding over an angry electorate, trained to direct their anger without delay at those in power.
asserted
None → suit → power
Trump spoke some truth when he gave voice to the idea that globalisation’s riches had come at the expense of the immiseration of the American working class, especially those without tertiary education.
asserted
riches → speak → education
He diagnosed correctly how a broadly liberal culture found nothing much to celebrate in those very same people, leaving them both economically and socially alienated.
asserted
culture → diagnose → them
But Trump then offered the mirage that such things could simply be restored by force.
uncertain
things → offer → force
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
