The midterm elections already upended national politics.
asserted
elections → upend → politics
Due to the number of state governments that have flipped to Democratic control, they also could change the way the U.S. elects a president.
uncertain
U.S. → flip → president
The sudden blue tint to so many more statehouses opens the door to enough states joining 18 other Democratic-run states in a deal that would effectively neuter the Electoral College.
asserted
that → open → College
It would remake the battle for the presidency into one for the most votes nationwide, rather than candidates concentrating on a half dozen or so swing states.
asserted
It → remake → states
The states that have joined what is known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact account for 222 Electoral College votes.
asserted
what → join → votes
Once the number of states involved hits the 270 needed to win the presidency, the arrangement would effectively require a candidate to win the national popular vote to get an Electoral College majority.
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arrangement → involve → majority
It’s not certain the strategy has support from all the newly elected lawmakers and governors in the key states, and it’s almost certain to draw legal challenges from conservative groups.
asserted
it → ’ → groups
If it does go forward, it could land before the conservative-majority Supreme Court.
uncertain
it → go → Court
Yet the sweep of the Democratic wins for governor and in state legislatures has the plan’s supporters optimistic.
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supporters → have → legislatures
In Tuesday’s elections, Democrats won full control in six states representing 71 Electoral College votes: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
asserted
Democrats → win → votes
Minnesota, with its 10 electoral votes, had joined the compact when it was previously under full Democratic control in 2023.
asserted
it → join → 2023
Some governors express support while others are noncommittal
“We can do away with it,” Wisconsin’s new Democratic Gov. David Crowley said of the Electoral College, now that he has a legislature in his party’s hands for the first time in 16 years.
asserted
he → express → years
“I am interested in having those conversations with the state Legislature.”
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I → have → Legislature
Over the weekend, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a likely 2028 contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, said he would like his newly Democratic legislature to take steps toward making the Electoral College obsolete.
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College → say → steps
“I think that the national popular vote makes sense.
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vote → think → sense
My views on that have not changed,” Shapiro said on a liberal podcast.
asserted
Shapiro → change → podcast
“I’ll work with lawmakers to figure out what the right mechanism is for moving forward on that.
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mechanism → work → that
If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin supported the compact, it would take just two of the remaining three Democratic flips of Arizona, Michigan and Nevada to reach the 270 threshold and make winning the Electoral College contingent on winning the popular vote.
asserted
winning → support → vote
But not every Democratic governor is embracing the push, at least for now.
asserted
governor → embrace → push
In a television interview on Monday, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs declined to say whether she favored her state joining the compact.
asserted
state → decline → compact
“Look, I will tell you, top of mind for me, from talking to voters across the state, is addressing the affordability issues, continuing to find ways to lower costs, to secure the border, to protect our water and continuing to protect public education,” said Hobbs, whose office declined to comment further.
asserted
office → look → education
In 2019, then-Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak vetoed a measure that would have committed Nevada to joining the compact after it was passed by Democratic majorities in both houses of the Legislature.
asserted
it → veto → Legislature
Sisolak said at the time that the popular vote idea would diminish the influence of smaller-population states like Nevada in national elections.
asserted
idea → say → elections
Democrats passed another measure to join the compact in 2023, but couldn’t figure out a way around the state’s then-Republican governor.
asserted
Democrats → pass → governor
The incoming administration of its new Democratic governor, Aaron Ford, did not respond to requests for comment, nor did Michigan’s new Democratic governor, Jocelyn Benson.
asserted
governor → respond → comment
Two presidents 16 years apart lost the popular vote
The idea of shifting to a national popular vote gained traction among Democrats after Republican George W. Bush won the 2000 presidential election by inching ahead of Democrat Al Gore in the Electoral College even while losing the popular vote.
asserted
Bush → lose → vote
It became turbocharged after Republicans again won the White House that way in 2016 with Donald Trump’s victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton
asserted
Republicans → turbocharge → Clinton
Under the National Popular Vote plan, the candidate who wins the popular vote nationwide would receive the Electoral College votes from the states that have joined the compact.
asserted
that → win → compact
There’s nothing inherently partisan about the idea, said Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist in Minnesota who is a senior consultant to the popular vote movement.
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who → ’ → movement
Occasionally GOP-majority legislative chambers, including the Oklahoma Senate, have passed proposals to join the compact, but the bills haven’t gone further.
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bills → include → compact
He said his own presidential vote is essentially meaningless because Minnesota has reliably voted Democratic in presidential elections for decades, leaving him with no say in the outcome and steering the vast majority of the candidates’ attention elsewhere.
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Minnesota → say → attention
“I don’t believe I’ve ever been relevant in the outcome of a presidential election,” he said.
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he → believe → election
“National popular vote forces campaigns to focus on every persuadable voter in every precinct across the nation.”
asserted
vote → force → nation
Rosenstiel said the national popular vote campaign has been revving up to push the issue when the newly Democratic state legislatures convene at the start of the year.
asserted
legislatures → say → year
He said the organization has already lined up legislative sponsors.
asserted
organization → say → sponsors
The compact could create constitutional concerns
Republicans no longer have the power to stop the change in the Democratic-controlled states, but some conservative groups are prepared for a fight.
uncertain
groups → create → fight
The change “disenfranchises voters in member states if enacted, violates the United States Constitution, and undermines America’s Founders’ intent,” wrote analysts for the America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump thinktank, in September.
asserted
analysts → disenfranchise → September
There also is no guarantee the proposals will pass.
asserted
proposals → pass → ?
Derek Muller, a Notre Dame law professor who is skeptical of the idea, said some might have second thoughts now that it’s gone from a symbolic protest vote to a real possibility.
uncertain
it → say → possibility
He said there will be constitutional concerns, as well, that will likely lead to legal challenges.
asserted
that → say → challenges
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
