Estimates vary, but the organisers of this year's UN climate talks in Türkiye said earlier this week that there were 94,866 people in Antalya for the two-week COP 31conference.
asserted
organisers → vary → COP
That includes all the official delegations, observers and media, not all the other groups who come along for the climate jamboree.
asserted
who → include → jamboree
Given that climate change seems to be so far down the list of world leaders' priorities these days, the numbers — which include 34,000 delegates of the various nations attending — seem even more staggering.
asserted
which → give → nations
The United States, at least at a national level, isn't here since Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement for a second time after regaining office.
asserted
Trump → withdraw → office
China's President Xi Jinping is missing; Vice-President Han Zheng has come instead.
asserted
Zheng → miss → ?
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham turned up very briefly.
asserted
Burnham → turn → ?
Despite this, those who keep the faith on climate change say coming to the COP meetings each year and seeing such huge numbers of people in attendance, gives them hope.
asserted
coming → keep → hope
"At least it shows that the rest of us are sticking together," one attendee said.
asserted
attendee → show → us
But pragmatists concede that the process of annual international talks feels like it is, at best, treading water for now.
asserted
it → concede → water
A '35 by 35' plan
We are a long way from the grand (and failed) ambition of Copenhagen in 2009, when an attempt to set up an entire world regulatory and pricing structure for carbon seemed (briefly) possible.
asserted
attempt → fail → carbon
We are also a long way from Paris in 2015, where a legally binding international agreement was signed by nearly 200 countries to hold the global average temperature increase to "well below 2 degrees Celsius" above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
asserted
increase → sign → C
This week's meeting was the first time it had been conceded that the 1.5°C target had been blown.
asserted
target → concede → ?
The forecast of a 2.6°C increase in warming has also now snuck up to 2.7°C..
asserted
forecast → sneak → C
In that context, the central plank of this year's talks seems not only starkly unambitious but more rubbery and accommodating of differences.
asserted
plank → seem → differences
The trajectory of what can be achieved keeps falling, even as the number of climate-related disasters around the world keeps growing.
asserted
number → achieve → world
Turkiye and Australia — as co-presidents of this year's conference — have proposed the world adopt a "35 by 35" plan.
That is, a plan for electricity's share of final energy consumption to increase to around 35 per cent by 2035.
While there is talk of this being a "pledge", the language of the proposal speaks of "advancing the shared ambition" of increasing electricity's share "while recognising different national circumstances and development priorities, and encouraging broader participation and implementation through national action, international partnerships and investment".
asserted
language → propose → action
In other words, the "pledge" is not only not binding, but it also puts no strictures on just what sort of energy is used to generate this electricity.
asserted
sort → put → electricity
In the language of international diplomacy, 35 by 35 "aims to mobilise political support, investment and international cooperation to accelerate electrification in line with national circumstances".
asserted
35 → mobilise → circumstances
Australia and Turkiye, by happenstance, are among the countries currently most reliant on fossil fuels to generate electricity.
asserted
Australia → generate → electricity
(Also by happenstance, Turkiye announced on the day the climate talks opened that new oil discoveries would help lift daily production to over 100,000 barrels a day in the second half of next year.)
asserted
discoveries → announce → year
Some countries, notably France, say the pledge is not worth anything if it is made on the back of fossil-fuel sourced electricity.
asserted
it → say → electricity
Critics say it may lock in fossil fuel use for longer.
uncertain
it → say → use
Advocates argue that the plummeting cost of renewable energy means the only rational decision to reach when considering future electricity supplies is clean energy.
asserted
decision → argue → supplies
The complications of individual countries energy systems, the structure and age of electricity grids and infrastructure, let alone the cost, can also limit a country's capacity to switch.
asserted
complications → let → capacity
No-one seems entirely sure how this proposal will end up after two weeks of negotiations: will it be an "ambition" or some form of binding pledge?
asserted
it → seem → pledge
Electricity currently accounts for about 23 per cent of energy consumption.
asserted
Electricity → account → consumption
It is forecast to rise to 30 per cent on the basis of technology changes already underway.
asserted
It → forecast → changes
The international think tank the Energy Transitions Commission has estimated that if the whole 35 by 35 pledge was powered by clean energy it would only cut global warming by about 0.3°C.
asserted
it → estimate → C
With the 1.5°C target already blown, that doesn't sound particularly ambitious.
Climate and energy minister Chris Bowen, who is chairing the negotiations between 190 countries, rejects that, saying the target would require countries to quadruple the current pace at which they are electrifying their energy systems.
asserted
they → blow → systems
That means four times faster take up of electric cars, renewable energy like wind and solar, greener buildings and transport systems.
asserted
That → mean → wind
In a world where global political will on climate adaptation feels like it is on life support, focusing on electrification offers the political advantage that it can be sold as directly addressing household energy costs at a time when a world energy crisis has made that a rather important issue.
asserted
that → feel → time
Matt Kean, who chair's Australia's Climate Change Authority, was briefly in Antalya at the conference.
asserted
who → chair → conference
The Authority's brief relates only to Australia's climate tasks, but he reflected both the reasons why focusing on electrification might make sense in policy terms, but also the political ones in global terms.
uncertain
focusing → relate → terms
"For Australia to hit it's ambitious emissions reduction targets, there are three things that we need to do: decarbonise the grid [that is move away from fossil-fuel based electricity]; electrify as much as we can; and use our landmass to sequester as much carbon as possible," he says.
asserted
he → hit → carbon
"Doing those three things largely gets us to 62 to 70 per cent [emissions reduction].
asserted
Doing → do → cent
Then we need to invest in research and development, to try and solve the problems of steel and cement, that is, the very-hard-to-abate parts of the economy.
asserted
we → need → economy
"But let's focus on the things where the technologies are available to us now.
asserted
technologies → let → us
If you were to electrify, not only is it going to be good for our emissions, but it will also be good for families and businesses through lower bills.
asserted
it → electrify → bills
"Every time you drive past the bowser at the moment, you're reminded about the need to get off energy supplies coming from very volatile parts of the world."
asserted
you → drive → world
The calamities of the world are converging
asserted
calamities → converge → world
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
