Democrats now control enough state legislatures to potentially put the National Popular Vote Act into effect and bypass the Electoral College, writes James Sieja
The 2026 midterms were a drubbing for Republicans at nearly every level of government.
asserted
midterms → control → government
But there’s an overlooked upshot of the Democrats’ sweep that could effectively alter the U.S. Constitution and the way the country elects its president.
uncertain
country → ’ → president
I cannot overstate the seismic shift that the NPVC will bring to presidential elections
The NPVC is an agreement among states to assign their Electoral College votes to whoever wins the most votes nationwide in a presidential election, regardless of which candidate wins the most votes in the state.
asserted
candidate → overstate → state
It goes into effect only if enough states join, through state legislation, to ensure the compact states will anoint the winner.
asserted
states → go → winner
Hence the states in the compact must have collectively 270 or more Electoral College votes.
asserted
states → have → votes
The compact is also a partisan issue — Democrats support it; Republicans oppose it.
asserted
Republicans → support → it
Until the morning of November 4, the NPVC was stuck at 222 Electoral College votes.
asserted
NPVC → stick → votes
However, with Democrats gaining lawmaking authority — i.e., control of both houses of the state legislature and governorship — in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, the NPVC has a clear shot of controlling the outcome of the 2028 election.
asserted
NPVC → gain → election
If the five newly Democrat-controlled states pass compact legislation, the NPVC will reach 283 Electoral College votes.
asserted
NPVC → control → votes
Any one of Arizona, Wisconsin, or Nevada could not pass NPVC legislation, and the compact will still go into effect.
uncertain
compact → pass → effect
I cannot overstate the seismic shift that the NPVC will bring to presidential elections, nor ignore the significant constitutional questions it raises.
The NPVC will make every vote cast in every hamlet, town, and metropolis have equal influence in the final tally for president.
asserted
vote → overstate → president
Traditional swing-state-based electoral strategy will be useless — the goal for presidential campaigns will be to turn out every voter that they can everywhere in the country.
asserted
they → base → country
From a democracy perspective, it sounds great.
asserted
it → sound → perspective
For folks skeptical of money in politics, the NPVC makes campaigning drastically more expensive.
asserted
campaigning → make → politics
Take, for example, the closest thing we’ve had to two parties competing on a national scale for every possible vote: the 2026 midterms.
asserted
we → take → vote
Democrats and Republicans actually tried to win every Senate contest, and the result was the most expensive election in American history: close to $12 billion spent.
asserted
result → try → history
And the newly opened battlegrounds will be in some of the most expensive places to campaign: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, and so on.
asserted
battlegrounds → open → places
RELATED: The GOP’s old dogs had better learn some new tricks
asserted
dogs → learn → tricks
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Presidential elections under the NPVC will look a lot more like midterms, and given the higher stakes, the country could easily see more than $20 billion spent for a single office.
uncertain
country → look → office
Presidential election spending will finally catch up with potato chip spending (about $25 billion per year).
asserted
spending → catch → year
In addition to spending, the NPVC raises some thorny legal questions.
asserted
NPVC → raise → questions
Right now, the national popular vote is a fiction calculated by summing 51 separate jurisdictions’ final vote tallies.
asserted
vote → calculate → tallies
But each state gets to its final tally in a different way.
asserted
state → get → way
Some are all mail ballots, others have longer or shorter early voting, and so on.
asserted
others → have → voting
So a vote in Oregon doesn’t really mean the same thing as a vote in Florida.
asserted
vote → mean → Florida
That’s a significant, nationwide equality problem for the NPVC.
asserted
That → ’ → NPVC
Additionally, since states shifted to awarding their Electoral College votes to the statewide winner in the 1830s, Americans expect their vote to translate to their state’s influence on the outcome.
asserted
vote → shift → outcome
Under the NPVC, each state’s voters lose their unique impact on who becomes president.
asserted
who → lose → impact
For example, think of yourself as an Indian-American voter in California who had the opportunity to express, through California’s electoral votes, your preference for the first candidate of Indian descent, Kamala Harris.
asserted
who → think → descent
With the NPVC, you can’t do that any more, because California’s Electoral College votes would have gone to Donald Trump in 2024.
asserted
votes → do → 2024
So the five states that have shifted to unified Democrat control should carefully consider whether they want to join the NPVC.
asserted
they → shift → NPVC
While attractive from an abstract perspective, the compact has significant flaws and downsides.
asserted
compact → have → flaws
If the states do join, though, 2028 will be an objectively historic election.
asserted
2028 → join → ?
This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
asserted
article → publish → RealClearWire
The Aporia
