On June 25, at the height of Ukraine’s long-range drone success, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he had approved a 40-day plan to compel Moscow to end the war through an intensified strike campaign.
asserted
he → announce → campaign
As part of the surge, Ukraine chose two new strategic targets to ramp up pressure on the Russian populace: Wildberries warehouses, Russia’s equivalent to Amazon, and fuel ships supplying Crimea.
asserted
Ukraine → choose → Crimea
Kyiv argued the warehouses held dual-use goods, and that hitting them would impose an immediate cost on ordinary Russians, who would pressure the Kremlin to end the war.
asserted
who → argue → war
The shipping strikes aimed to strangle Crimea into an energy and supply crisis.
asserted
strikes → aim → crisis
Kyiv argued the warehouses held dual-use goods, and that hitting them would impose an immediate cost on ordinary Russians, who would pressure the Kremlin to end the war.
asserted
who → argue → war
The shipping strikes aimed to strangle Crimea into an energy and supply crisis.
asserted
strikes → aim → crisis
Each campaign started strong.
asserted
campaign → start → ?
With air defenses concentrated around energy and military sites, civilian warehouses and shipping were largely exposed.
asserted
warehouses → concentrate → sites
From July 6 to 10, Ukrainian drones struck 35 Russian vessels, including 14 in a single night.
asserted
drones → strike → night
The world became awash with images of burning warehouses blackening out the sky, and fuel shortages in Crimea became more acute.
asserted
shortages → become → Crimea
Russian air defenses soon adapted.
asserted
defenses → adapt → ?
Of far greater consequence, however, was Moscow’s decision to overhaul its own strike doctrine in response.
asserted
decision → overhaul → response
Strangling Odesa
The Greater Odesa ports, Ukraine’s only access to the Black Sea and an economic lifeline, were blockaded early in the war, but reopened under a Turkish-negotiated deal.
asserted
ports → strangle → deal
After it collapsed in 2023, Russia opted against another blockade, likely out of fear of retaliation against its own shadow fleet or attacks against shipping to Crimea.
asserted
Russia → collapse → Crimea
Russia first began stepping up attacks on Odesa in December, but these remained only disruptive, rather than crippling, with Moscow’s mind on the escalation ladder.
asserted
these → begin → ladder
After Ukraine’s drone blitz in the Black and Azov seas, the gloves came off.
asserted
gloves → come → seas
, Moscow launched a sustained drone and missile campaign against the port city, hitting fuel depots, ships, and port facilities at an intensity not seen since the war’s beginning.
asserted
Moscow → launch → beginning
The inflection point came on July 19, when Russia targeted and sank the Turkish-owned MV Golden Leo as it left the nearby port of Chornomorsk with three cruise missiles, killing 10 crewmen.
“Since then every vessel entering or leaving Odessa has been targeted,” the Economist reported.
asserted
Economist → come → Odessa
Russia’s S8000 Banderol, a cheap jet-powered cruise missile, proved ideal for hunting cargo ships while evading the port’s depleted air defenses.
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Banderol → power → defenses
By July 30, the port was under a “de facto blockade,” RBC Ukraine reported, with Maersk and CMA CGM canceling all port calls to Greater Odesa and diverting them to Constanta, Romania.
asserted
Maersk → report → Constanta
Ukraine offered a mutual Black Sea truce by mid-August, which Russia ignored.
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Russia → offer → which
On Sept. 21, Ukrainian Ports Association president Dmytro Barinov revealed that over 300 vessels had been damaged or destroyed since the missile and drone campaign began.
asserted
campaign → reveal → Sept.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club told grain traders to expect Odesa to remain closed through the winter.
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Odesa → tell → winter
“This is an unprecedented situation, when civilian vessels are not simply struck but methodically finished off and destroyed, to deny us the ability to conduct trade,” Ukrainian Major Gen. Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, told RBC-Ukraine on Aug. 10.
asserted
Skibitsky → strike → Aug.
The damage is difficult to overstate.
asserted
damage → overstate → ?
“One ship of 100,000 tons is equivalent to 5,000 trucks, 5,000 drivers, and 5,000 border procedures,” Barinov explained to the Economist, adding that the current situation is the worst of the entire war, as Danube routes that offset losses in 2022 suffer from low water and Russian attacks.
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that → explain → water
The exports can’t all be diverted overland either, especially as Russia’s sustained attacks on Ukraine’s locomotive fleet are degrading the most efficient overland route.
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attacks → divert → route
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky estimated that Ukraine has over 60 million tons of agricultural products awaiting export, requiring about 5 million tons of monthly capacity.
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Ukraine → estimate → capacity
Assuming the complete closure of Greater Odessa ports, alternative routes can only reach half of this total, according to Ag Bull, and that estimate assumes full railroad capacity and use of Danube routes.
uncertain
estimate → assume → routes
The World Bank put Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 at $190.74 billion, and its exports at $41.6 billion.
asserted
Bank → put → billion
Ukraine’s Economy Ministry says more than 60% of merchandise exports, and 89% of agricultural exports, pass through its seaports.
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% → say → seaports
That leaves roughly $25 billion in annual exports, about 13% of GDP, at the mercy of ports that are now commercially dead.
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that → leave → ports
Vysotsky told Reuters in early August that the agricultural sector alone could lose as much as $3 billion this year.
uncertain
sector → tell → billion
Ferrexpo halted mining and suspended two major steel plants on Aug. 5.
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Ferrexpo → halt → Aug.
Mining and metallurgy made up 15.2% of Ukraine’s export revenue in 2025.
asserted
Mining → make → 2025
Russia’s warehouse retaliation came even faster.
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retaliation → come → ?
On July 18, the day of Ukraine’s first Wildberries strikes, Moscow launched one of the war’s largest missile barrages on Kyiv.
asserted
Moscow → launch → Kyiv
Warehouses quickly became a top target, and later concentrated assaults were framed as explicit retaliation, including an Aug. 5 strike hitting Rozetka, Epicentr, Novus, and Silpo warehouses in Kyiv.
asserted
assaults → become → Kyiv
Some analysts dispute any link, noting Russia struck warehouses earlier in the war.
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Russia → dispute → war
But most agree that July brought a sudden shift toward systematically targeting them, coinciding with Ukraine’s Wildberries campaign.
asserted
July → agree → campaign
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
