Claims extracted
22
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
23%
5 of 22 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Centre
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
18
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
From the time Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser appeared on the ABC’s 7.30 program three weeks ago, it was clear an interest rate hike was coming.
asserted
hike → appear → program
“We have one big problem and that’s inflation,” was one of the first things Hauser told the national television audience.
asserted
Hauser → have → audience
Since then, Reserve Bank officials have used multiple public appearances and even podcast interviews to repeat the message.
asserted
officials → use → message
After the rate increase was announced, a poised Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock spent nearly an hour ramming home a similar message at the traditional press conference that follows each interest rate decision.
asserted
that → announce → decision
“I know this decision is difficult for households with a mortgage and businesses with loans, but high inflation hurts all Australians, especially the most vulnerable,” she said.
asserted
she → know → Australians
She even acknowledged the possibility the RBA’s ongoing inflation fight could push Australia into recession if the public’s expectations of inflation cannot be contained.
uncertain
expectations → acknowledge → inflation
It is understandable they felt the need to do a lot of explaining: the circumstances for this interest rate hike are highly unusual.
asserted
circumstances → feel → hike
Normally, rates rise when the economy is humming and demand is strong; the RBA intervenes with higher rates to slow things down and keep prices in check.
But right now, unemployment is near a five-year high, house prices are falling and economic growth per person is anaemic – hardly the conditions under which you would expect a fourth hike in eight months that lifts the RBA’s benchmark cash rate to a 15-year high.
US President Donald Trump’s ill-advised and ill-fated attack on Iran is a big factor.
asserted
attack → rise → Iran
Inflationary pressures were stirring before the Middle East conflict began in February, but his intervention has made the inflation fight far more difficult.
asserted
fight → stir → February
The RBA’s short statement announcing the rates decision said, “global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed” only a month ago.
asserted
prices → announce → decision
Bullock labelled the Middle East conflict “a big shock” that has “made us all poorer in this country.
asserted
us → label → country
”
But it’s not all about the Middle East conflict – complex constraints on what the Reserve Bank calls “domestic capacity” are also contributing to Australia’s inflation problem.
asserted
Bank → ’ → problem
That means spending by the private sector (consumers and businesses) and the public sector (governments) is also pushing up inflation.
asserted
spending → mean → inflation
The release of the Final Budget Outcome for last financial year on Monday was a reminder that, despite Australia’s inflationary pressures, the federal government has been running a budget deficit; it could be doing more to assist the Reserve Bank control inflation by spending less.
The RBA’s monetary policy board, which sets interest rates, has made it clear more increases are possible.
In a short statement announcing Tuesday’s decision, the board said it would “will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed.
uncertain
it → run → target
The bond futures traded on money markets are signalling another interest rate increase by February and a 70 per cent probability of yet another hike by June next year.
asserted
futures → trade → June
But the RBA faces a tricky balance as it tries to tame inflation while not causing lasting damage to the economy.
asserted
it → face → economy
Australia has benefited enormously from five years of low unemployment, but that could quickly evaporate if rates are lifted too high.
uncertain
rates → benefit → unemployment
A lot will depend on how consumers and businesses react to the latest interest rate hike.
asserted
consumers → depend → hike
A continued deterioration in the jobs market and further property price falls may prevent another rise.
uncertain
deterioration → prevent → rise
But if the Middle East conflict drags on, putting upward pressure on inflation, the RBA may conclude it has no choice but to lift interest rates again.
uncertain
it → drag → rates
Borrowers beware should senior Reserve Bank officials start appearing on national TV in the weeks before the next board meeting.
asserted
officials → beware → meeting
Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
asserted
Subscribers → sign → newsletter
The Aporia
