If Canada is betting that Trump’s tariff fight and Ottawa’s retaliation will exact political costs on U.S. President Donald Trump and Republicans in November’s midterms, it may be onto something: a senior Trump adviser just signalled that the White House sees the Canada-U.S. trade spat as politically sensitive.
uncertain
House → bet → spat
Speaking at an economic conference in Washington on Tuesday, Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro had a few choice words for Canada.
asserted
adviser → speak → Canada
He likened the country to a rowboat and the U.S. to an aircraft carrier before asking whether any Canadians were in the room.
asserted
Canadians → liken → room
Addressing them, Navarro said: “If you’re on K Street, get the hell out of our country because the problem you have is you lobby this country, and you’ve been successful in the past, and you think you can keep doing that.”
asserted
you → address → that
Navarro offered no evidence that Canadian lobbying or retaliatory tariffs amounted to election interference.
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lobbying → offer → interference
But by naming the Pine Tree and Great Lake States, both of which have close economic ties to Canada and consequential Senate races, he underscored the administration’s apparent concern about the dispute’s political effects.
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he → name → effects
The administration may have reason to be concerned.
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administration → have → reason
In a newly released survey, the Cato Institute and Morning Consult found that 75 per cent of registered U.S. voters said tariffs, defined in the poll as a U.S. tax imposed on imported products, would be important to their vote.
asserted
tariffs → release → vote
While few issues draw bipartisan backing these days in the United States, Democrats were not alone in feeling hard done by tariffs.
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Democrats → draw → tariffs
According to Emily Ekins, vice president for policy and society and the director of polling at the Cato Institute, nearly two-thirds of Republicans also said tariffs imposed under Trump had increased prices.
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tariffs → accord → prices
“We were very clear in asking, ‘Are tariffs affecting the prices of things you buy at the store?’” she explained.
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she → ask → store
“Seventy-four percent of all Americans agree with that, and nearly two-thirds of Republicans did too,” she said (as did 73 per cent of independents and 84 per cent of Democrats).
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cent → agree → Democrats
Andrew Hale, senior fellow at Advancing American Freedom, says the price effect could become especially potent in working-class regions where Trump won former Democratic voters by promising economic relief.
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Trump → say → relief
Based on recent conversations with Republican campaign staffers, he said voter anger over tariffs is registering.
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anger → base → tariffs
“The campaign is being won or lost on tariffs, which is seen to be raising prices,” Hale said.
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Hale → win → prices
Pollsters, however, are less convinced that tariffs alone will lead to specific voting decisions.
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tariffs → lead → decisions
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecasting newsletter, says it has more to do with the economy overall.
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it → say → economy
“I would just view it as sort of a subset of the larger affordability issue,” said Kondik.
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Kondik → view → issue
Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, agrees.
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Smith → agree → Center
“Tariffs are, I think, one factor in that, but it’s really just the state of the economy,” he said.
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he → think → economy
He says tariffs are less of a standalone trade-policy issue than a shorthand for voters’ broader anxiety about the cost of living.
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tariffs → say → living
He also doubts Americans really understand tariffs.
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Americans → doubt → tariffs
“I don’t think that people could frankly tell you what a tariff is or what it does,” he said.
uncertain
he → think → what
But on this, Ekins pushed back, inferring that Trump has been using his favourite word, “tariffs,” a lot over the past two years.
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Trump → push → years
“Ordinarily, trade and tariffs have very little to do with people’s vote.
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trade → do → vote
But here’s the difference: Donald Trump has made trade and tariffs his signature economic policy,” she said.
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she → ’ → ?
“This year, tariffs are on the ballot because now people think of tariffs as being, ‘You’re raising my prices.’”
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You → think → prices
While Hale believes some working-class people who were once Democrats and voted for Trump will go back to voting Democrat, the pollsters disagree.
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pollsters → believe → Democrat
They say no matter how frustrated they are by higher prices, most Republicans are about as likely to vote for Democrats as Maple Leafs fans are to start cheering for the Canadiens.
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fans → say → Canadiens
Instead, how Republicans fare will come down to one thing: turnout.
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fare → fare → thing
Will Republicans show up on election day?
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Republicans → show → day
“The hardcore ones will, but the more modestly Republican are the ones that are least likely to show up,” Smith said.
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Smith → show → ?
Ekins echoed this.
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Ekins → echo → this
“I don’t expect them all to rush to the Democrats.
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them → expect → Democrats
They’re going to sit at home and not turn out to vote in the midterms.”
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They → go → midterms
Americans still like the idea of using tariffs to support domestic manufacturing, Ekins said, but they are far less enthusiastic about paying higher prices for it.
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they → like → it
That reluctance is especially pronounced when the target is Canada.
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target → pronounce → ?
In the Cato/Morning Consult survey, 56 per cent opposed tariffs on Canadian goods — the strongest opposition among the countries tested.
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cent → oppose → countries
Meanwhile, majorities of 57 and 60 per cent, respectively, supported tariffs on China and Russia.
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majorities → support → China
Ekins explained that U.S. voters seemed willing to accept tariffs when the duties are framed as a national-security tool against adversaries, not in trade with close allies.
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duties → explain → allies
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
