Political power in legislatures and governors’ offices is at stake in the November elections in more than one-third of the states, creating down-ballot drama in the midterms that could have significant implications for President Donald Trump’s agenda.
uncertain
that → create → agenda
Outside groups aligned with the two major parties have pledged heavy spending in a battle for control of closely divided legislatures in at least a half-dozen states.
asserted
groups → align → states
But that’s just the tip of the spear in their political jousting.
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that → ’ → jousting
In numerous other states, the parties are striving to make or break a legislative supermajority — an important threshold that allows them to enact laws with little regard to dissent.
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them → strive → dissent
And in several states, competitive gubernatorial races could determine whether one party achieves a political trifecta, grasping hold of both legislative chambers and the top executive spot.
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party → determine → chambers
Party control of state governments can shape policies on contentious issues including abortion, school choice, data centers and the use of law-enforcement surveillance cameras.
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control → shape → cameras
In a few states, the electoral outcomes this cycle could also have congressional redistricting implications for 2028.
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outcomes → have → 2028
The state races also carry significant implications for Trump’s agenda, because the elected officials can either aid or resist his immigration enforcement actions, social safety net limitations and efforts to alter voting procedures.
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officials → carry → procedures
All told, voters in 46 states will choose more than 6,100 lawmakers in November, accounting for about 83% of all legislative seats nationwide, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
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voters → tell → Legislatures
Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections.
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states → hold → elections
Trump’s approval ratings could swing state legislatures
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ratings → swing → legislatures
Historically, the party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections.
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party → lose → elections
In midterm elections over the past 50 years, the president’s party has lost an average of 7.9% of its house and assembly seats up for reelection in states, according to research by Steven Rogers, a political science professor at Saint Louis University.
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party → lose → University
In Trump’s first midterm, in 2018, Republicans lost 8.7%, Rogers said.
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Rogers → lose → %
A similar showing this year could spell the end of Republican control of legislative chambers in Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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showing → spell → Arizona
Minnesota currently has the nation’s tightest margins, with an even split between Democrats and Republicans in the House and a one-seat Democratic edge in the Senate.
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Minnesota → have → Senate
Trump’s poor public approval ratings could play a role in those states.
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ratings → play → states
For voters choosing state house and assembly candidates, presidential approval typically has three times the impact of state legislative approval, Rogers said.
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Rogers → choose → approval
Edith Jorge-Tuñón, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, conceded that her party is in a defensive position.
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party → concede → position
“I think we knew going into this cycle, Democrats have an advantage,” said Jorge-Tuñón, whose group works to elect Republicans to legislative seats and statewide offices.
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group → think → seats
But she argued that voter frustration with Democratic leadership in states like Minnesota or Oregon could provide a buffer against that advantage.
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frustration → argue → advantage
Wisconsin provides an example of how political power could swing.
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power → provide → example
Democrats haven’t fully controlled Wisconsin’s government since 2010.
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Democrats → control → 2010
But new legislative districts, ordered by the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court, give Democrats a shot at flipping both Republican-led chambers.
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districts → order → chambers
Democrats’ hopes run through downtown Racine.
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hopes → run → Racine
Located along the shores of Lake Michigan north of Chicago and south of Milwaukee, Racine is a Democratic stronghold known both for its rich manufacturing past and as the kringle capital of Wisconsin.
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Racine → locate → Wisconsin
Danish immigrants brought the buttery, oval-shaped pastry to the area in the 1800s, and bakeries in downtown Racine continue to make the sweet treats and ship them around the country.
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bakeries → bring → country
Under Republican-drawn maps enacted in 2011, most of Racine was removed from the 21st Senate District to make the seat safe for Republicans.
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seat → draw → Republicans
But the new map added back the city’s north side and more Democratic-favorable areas in Milwaukee County and removed conservative rural areas.
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map → add → areas
The Republican incumbent decided to retire rather than seek reelection under the more competitive lines, further bolstering Democratic hopes.
Democrats are optimistic they will pick up the two seats needed to flip control of the Senate in November.
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they → decide → November
They need to flip five seats to gain control of the Assembly.
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They → need → Assembly
An open governor’s office, also on the ballot, gives them a shot at full control.
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office → give → control
“In a year like this with the president and his war jacking up the prices of gas, Democrats are in a really strong position,” said Will Karcz, spokesperson for Wisconsin Senate Democrats.
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Karcz → jack → Democrats
A single seat could sway power in some states
In North Carolina, Republicans need to gain just one state House seat — without losing any Senate seats — to reestablish a three-fifths supermajority.
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Republicans → sway → supermajority
That threshold is important because it gives Republicans the ability to override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Josh Stein without needing any Democratic votes.
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it → give → votes
Iowa Republicans face a similar math equation to regain a two-thirds legislative supermajority, which could matter even more if Democrats win the race to replace Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who chose not to seek reelection.
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who → face → reelection
A loss of just one state Senate seat could cost Republicans a supermajority in Florida.
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loss → cost → Florida
Meanwhile, a pickup of one seat could result in a new Democratic supermajority in New York.
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pickup → result → York
Among other battlegrounds, a swing of just a few seats could break a Republican supermajority in Missouri and gain Democratic supermajorities in Colorado and Nevada.
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swing → break → Colorado
This year’s state elections could affect 2028’s congressional elections
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elections → affect → elections
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
