I left the United States Court of International Trade on Wednesday afternoon and stood on a Manhattan sidewalk, unable to move.
asserted
I → leave → sidewalk
I have spent three weeks in this newspaper on the legal mechanics of this trade war — which statute, which clock started running.
asserted
clock → spend → war
That was the right place to start.
asserted
That → start → ?
It is not where this ends for the people living through it.
asserted
this → end → it
Somewhere in Ontario, a dairy processor is deciding whether to keep a night shift running for a product that, as of this week, cannot enter the United States at all.
asserted
that → decide → States
Somewhere in the Maritimes, a manufacturer is pricing its next shipment of steel against a competitor in Germany or Japan, whose government negotiated a tariff cap into its own trade deal.
asserted
government → price → deal
Canada has no deal to write one into.
asserted
Canada → have → one
That is why I paid my own way to New York, one Canadian lawyer, because nobody representing Canada had.
asserted
nobody → pay → Canada
I want to be exact about what happened Wednesday, and what did not.
asserted
what → want → ?
I testified before the American trade representative when this investigation opened and filed a brief in the case argued that day, in support of the businesses and states challenging these tariffs.
asserted
investigation → testify → tariffs
The written argument needed making, and nobody else was making it.
asserted
nobody → write → it
What the court does with it now is theirs alone, and I will not pretend to know what it will do.
asserted
it → pretend → what
What I will say is this.
asserted
say → say → What
The calendar is not built for a resolution, and ordinary Canadians are paying rent on that every day it drags on.
asserted
it → build → that
Mexico’s own trade minister was in Milwaukee this same week, in the room with the Americans, writing the G20 rules for this kind of dispute.
asserted
minister → write → dispute
Canada has not had one substantive round with Washington since August.
asserted
Canada → have → August
That absence has a real cost, and it lands on people who never chose this fight.
asserted
who → have → fight
The Bank of Canada estimates the economy is running about a point and a half below where it expected to be, and half of that growth gone for good, expansions quietly shelved because nobody could say when this ends.
uncertain
this → estimate → growth
A tariff is a price a business can absorb.
asserted
business → absorb → ?
What took effect this week on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles is not a price.
asserted
took → take → alcohol
A producer cannot sell into that market at any price, any volume, for any reason.
asserted
producer → sell → reason
There is a word for that, and it is not tariff.
asserted
it → be → that
It’s a blockade, an economic one, until this year reserved for adversaries, not a treaty ally.
asserted
It → ’ → adversaries
Nobody can tell a machinist in Windsor when this ends, or a steel worker near Hamilton.
asserted
this → tell → Hamilton
They read the news the same way we all do: their own government has not sat down with the people who can change this.
asserted
who → read → this
I do not know what trade judges will decide.
asserted
judges → know → what
I know only what I saw leaving that building: American small business owners and state attorney general lawyers who came because the law let them, and no one from Canada beside them.
asserted
law → know → them
Here is the part I think gets lost.
asserted
I → think → ?
Canadians are not paying the costs of the trade war for nothing.
asserted
Canadians → pay → nothing
Weeks ago, Ottawa was asked to hand over exclusive rights to Canadian critical minerals, and to accept limits on who Canada may trade with.
uncertain
Canada → ask → who
Canada said no, or not yet.
asserted
Canada → say → ?
A country that trades away the right to choose its partners has lost the thing worth protecting.
asserted
that → trade → thing
Independence has never been free anywhere it meant anything.
asserted
it → mean → anything
I still think it is worth paying.
asserted
it → think → ?
Nobody has been honest about how dear that price has become.
asserted
price → become → ?
I went because those workers cannot be there themselves.
asserted
workers → go → ?
That is a plain description of an empty chair, and empty chairs have consequences for people who never chose to leave them empty.
asserted
who → have → them
The tariffs are a night shift, a shelved expansion, a market that used to exist and does not anymore.
asserted
that → shelve → ?
Somebody should be making that argument for the people carrying that weight.
asserted
Somebody → make → weight
I did not argue for Canada in that courtroom.
asserted
I → argue → courtroom
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
