Looking at the polls, it is almost certain that Quebeckers will wake up on Tuesday to a Parti Québécois government.
asserted
Quebeckers → look → government
A majority is most likely, but the Conservative party’s growing momentum in ridings where it could take a handful of seats from the PQ, means a minority is still possible.
uncertain
minority → grow → PQ
Éric Duhaime and his Conservatives are hoping for a PQ minority.
asserted
Duhaime → hop → minority
They may be hoping for the wrong outcome.
uncertain
They → hop → outcome
Beyond the Quebec City area, where its support is the strongest, the Conservatives are making inroads in central Quebec and the Eastern Townships.
asserted
Conservatives → make → Quebec
In the last election, Duhaime used the COVID crisis to his advantage.
asserted
Duhaime → use → advantage
Despite winning more than 500,000 votes, his party failed to win a single seat.
asserted
party → win → seat
Nobody would have thought, in a parliamentary system, that a party with no seat would be able to stay relevant for four years and be competitive heading into the next election.
asserted
party → think → election
Not only did he remain relevant, but Duhaime, more often than not, was able to set the agenda and suggest innovative solutions to decades-long problems.
asserted
Duhaime → remain → problems
He recruited a full slate of candidates and built a very good and disciplined campaign.
asserted
He → recruit → campaign
He offered a real contrast with Quebec’s political status quo, calling for the complete elimination of business subsidies and promising the largest tax cuts in the province’s history.
asserted
He → offer → history
He also proposed $47 billion in total spending cuts over five years.
asserted
He → propose → years
Duhaime talked about initiatives to increase Quebec’s birth rate by giving families greater choices in daycare, education and health care, and he did not hesitate to offer private-sector solutions.
asserted
he → talk → solutions
There is no doubt that Duhaime ran a successful campaign offering a bold and sharp contrast with the status quo.
asserted
Duhaime → be → quo
Unlike its federal counterpart, which operates largely within existing economic models, favouring boutique tax credits, the Quebec Conservatives are trying to break the mould.
asserted
Conservatives → operate → mould
The party is now sitting at 17 per cent in the Quebec125 average as of Friday, 13 points behind the PQ.
asserted
party → sit → PQ
It is projected to win 15 seats in the 127 seat National Assembly.
asserted
It → project → Assembly
The last Conservative MNA was elected in 1935.
asserted
MNA → elect → 1935
Ahead of Monday’s election, Duhaime has been calling for strategic voting, claiming he is the only one who can stop Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, or PSPP, from winning a majority government.
asserted
who → call → government
However, a word of caution; so far, Duhaime has been patient and has built a smart movement with limited resources.
asserted
Duhaime → build → resources
From what I hear on the ground, party operatives think they can pull off a couple of upsets in a few ridings that would be enough to deny the PQ a majority,
asserted
that → hear → majority
Like the CAQ in 2018, the ADQ presented itself as a third option between federalism and separatism.
asserted
ADQ → present → federalism
It was an autonomist party offering some right-of-centre solutions.
asserted
It → offer → solutions
In 2007, the party went from four seats to 41, and became the official Opposition in a minority parliament.
asserted
party → go → parliament
Constant scrutiny exposed the inexperience of its new MNAs.
asserted
scrutiny → expose → MNAs
In trying to move too quickly toward power, the party undermined what had brought them success.
asserted
what → try → success
Premier Jean Charest, an astute politician, took advantage of the situation.
asserted
Charest → take → situation
Twenty months later, he called an election and won a majority, reducing the ADQ to just seven seats.
asserted
he → call → seats
While Duhaime is asking for a minority parliament in which he has the balance of power, he should be careful what he is wishing for.
asserted
he → ask → what
Politics rewards those who know when to strike.
asserted
who → reward → those
It punishes those who confuse motion with progress.
asserted
who → punish → progress
The Conservatives do not need power at the moment.
asserted
Conservatives → need → moment
They need time.
asserted
They → need → time
Duhaime will have a lot on his plate during his first year in the National Assembly.
asserted
Duhaime → have → Assembly
Going from zero seats to 15 would be a major organizational challenge and a steep learning curve.
asserted
Going → go → 15
Not to mention that this party has not had a parliamentary presence in generations.
asserted
party → mention → generations
Trying to bring down a government soon after an election could be disastrous.
uncertain
Trying → try → election
On the contrary, they should take advantage of that time to gain experience, build a professional organization, recruit cabinet-calibre candidates and professionalize the party.
asserted
they → take → party
While the Conservatives use that time to build, PSPP will have his hands full.
asserted
hands → use → time
The PQ has not governed since 2012.
asserted
PQ → govern → 2012
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
