In short:
The Coalition has unveiled a plan to drive net overseas migration down to 100,000 for two years through major changes to graduate, humanitarian and other visa programs.
asserted
Coalition → unveil → programs
It would go further than Labor's migration targets while increasing skilled migration, but the Coalition has not released modelling of the broader economic impact.
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Coalition → go → impact
The Coalition has promised to release costings for its migration policy closer to the 2028 federal election.
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Coalition → promise → election
The Coalition would slash Australia's temporary migration intake by about 650,000 over four years through deep cuts to graduate, refugee and bridging visas that go further than Labor's plan.
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that → slash → plan
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has unveiled what he described as the "biggest cut to immigration in this country's history", declaring he was "confident" the changes would be budget "neutral" but without offering modelling on the broader economic impact of the policy.
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changes → unveil → policy
Under a future Coalition government, net overseas migration (NOM) would be slashed to 100,000 for the first two years, followed by 130,000 in the third and 160,000 in the fourth year.
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migration → slash → year
Australia's NOM fell to 292,100 people in the year to March, with Labor pursuing a target of 245,000 for this financial year and 225,000 the year after.
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Labor → fall → year
Mr Taylor said Australia needed "breathing space" after several record years of migration post-pandemic, arguing this was best achieved by slashing temporary migrants and prioritising high-skilled workers, including in construction.
"Australia should be a home, not a hotel," he said.
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he → say → construction
One Nation has announced it would cut 750,000 temporary visas, resulting in a negative NOM for three years and then an intake of 130,000 people in the fourth year.
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it → announce → year
Mr Taylor announced the Coalition's alternative proposal on Tuesday, which includes a cap on student visas and halving Australia's humanitarian intake to 10,000 annually.
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which → announce → 10,000
The biggest cut is to bridging visas, which would go from about 414,00 to 20,000 by forcing temporary visa holders to leave Australia if they want to apply for a new visa.
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they → bridge → visa
The Coalition would also impose a 30-day limit for anyone wanting to make an onshore claim for asylum in Australia.
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Coalition → impose → Australia
The government is aiming for 245,000 net overseas migration (NOM) by June next year, and 225,000 by the middle of 2028.
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government → aim → 2028
Those figures were forecast in the budget and are now a target.
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figures → forecast → budget
In March, the NOM was 292,100, according to figures released last month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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NOM → accord → Statistics
The Coalition has announced an annual NOM target of 100,000 for the first two years if it wins the election.
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it → announce → election
It will aim for 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 in the fourth year.
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It → aim → year
The minor party unveiled a policy to slash immigration by 750,000 over three years, pushing the NOM into negative territory.
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party → unveil → territory
After that, they would aim for a "ceiling" of 130,000, to be reviewed every year.
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they → aim → 130,000
Which visas would be affected?
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visas → affect → ?
Temporary graduate visas would be scrapped except for some limited post-study pathways for PhD, health and education graduates, as well as those studying at regional universities.
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visas → scrap → universities
The Coalition would cap international student commencements at 240,000, restrict most dependents from accompanying them and link each student visa to the institution they enrolled with.
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they → cap → institution
Mr Taylor said he would increase the share of skilled migrants, including about 60,000 more temporary skilled visa holders and 15,000 new skilled project visas a year for major projects.
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he → say → projects
The talent and innovation allocation would double to 7,000 through a new AUKUS and Five Eyes visa, while permanent applicants would be prioritised based on factors like age, income, English language proficiency and skilled partners.
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applicants → double → age
The temporary skilled priority list would be changed to fast track construction and prioritise employer-sponsored migration in regional Australia.
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list → change → Australia
Broadly, anyone making a second or subsequent temporary visa application would have to leave Australia and lodge the paperwork offshore.
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anyone → make → paperwork
The Coalition would scrap Labor's caps for second and third-year working holiday maker visa extensions and instead increase fees with exemptions for those who completed required regional work.
Economic knock-on effects
The cuts would initially bring Australia's migration levels down to the lowest outside the pandemic since 2004.
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cuts → scrap → 2004
Mr Taylor said the Coalition had been working with the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) and the policy would be "neutral" on the federal budget.
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policy → say → budget
He did not release any costings but implied this would be achieved by an increase in skilled migrants at the expense of other visa classes.
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this → release → classes
Mr Taylor said the economics were "simple" because a student or temporary graduate visa holder contributed on average $7,000 to $14,000 in taxes compared to a temporary skilled visa holder contributing more than $30,000.
"If you bring people in who can make a … significant contribution and they're going to work hard, then it's better for the budget and the economy,"he said.
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it → say → budget
Mr Taylor accused Labor of using population growth to prop up Australia's broader economic prosperity but did not release modelling showing what such a large reduction in migration would mean for the economy.
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reduction → accuse → economy
The Coalition has promised to release costing closer to the federal election in 2028.
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Coalition → promise → 2028
One Nation reacts to Coalition policy
Nationals leader Matt Canavan described the measures as a plan to "take back our country" from temporary migrants, who he accused of undercutting Australians' wages.
"We are a country, not a campground," he said.
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he → react → wages
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who unveiled her own policy to dramatically reduce temporary migration last month, said the Coalition had turned up "late to the grand final" with a policy after "both teams have headed back to the changerooms".
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teams → unveil → changerooms
She said Labor and the Coalition had both been "dragged kicking and screaming" into the debate by One Nation.
"
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Labor → say → Nation
It might sound like Liberal and Labor are saying the right thing, but actions speak louder than words," Ms Hanson said.
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Hanson → sound → words
Labor's limits on visas
Last month, the federal government unveiled several changes aimed at reducing Australia's migration intake, with measures largely targeting students and their families as well as working holiday-makers.
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government → unveil → students
Under changes that came into effect on Friday, international students would largely be barred from bringing family, would need a new visa to change courses and could only move to a higher-level qualification after graduating.
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students → come → qualification
Limits imposed on the working holiday-maker program included the introduction of a ballot system for visa holders hoping to stay in Australia beyond one year.
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Limits → impose → year
The ballot would be capped at 45,000 second-year places and 5,000 third-year places, down from about 57,000 and 31,000 respectively last year.
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ballot → cap → 57,000
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
