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“Though there has been some movement in individual states, and it’s mostly been favorable for Democrats, particularly in the Kansas, Michigan and Maine Senate races, and arguably Texas.”

“In fact, Michigan has among the fewest undecided voters4 of any Senate race at 4.8 percent; the lowest is Maine at 3.5 percent.”

“The Maine Senate race is close, but Democrats are doing well enough elsewhere that the overall disposition of the Senate is essentially certain by late Tuesday night either way.”

“The Senate race in Maine has some of these same characteristics.”

“(The case was eventually dismissed.) The Senate race in Maine has a high profile; the gubernatorial race doesn’t.”

“While we rely on the NYT feed for midterms “horse race” polls — meaning, polls for Senate, gubernatorial and House races — we maintain our own database of presidential approval polls, generic ballot polls, and certain other polling series.”

“This week, Clare, Galen and I focused on two key Senate races: Maine and Ohio.”

“Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race.”

“… gathering these 68 fucking files that we have, and making sure that the 550-odd races5 that we’re forecasting — governor, House, Senate — making sure all that information is accurate, merging candidates’ FEC IDs with their pollster IDs and that kind of…”

“…IPR, there are both “micro” indicators that apply to one election (e.g., the polls in a particular Senate race, or how much money each candidate has raised in that state) and “macro” indicators like the generic ballot and polarization5 that affect all of…”

“Selfishly, we’d love it if this campaign were only just getting started and there were wild gyrations in the polls and dramatic late swings in the race.”