As the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), he advises presidents and energy ministers; CEOs follow his view of the market with careful attention.
asserted
CEOs → advise → attention
When we caught up at the United Nations climate change conference, known as COP31, currently underway in Antalya, Turkey, he offered a blunt analysis: the war in Iran has unleashed a structural shift.
asserted
war → catch → shift
"I don't see any credible pathway in which the world of energy is going back where it was before the Iran War," he said on Nov. 13.
asserted
he → see → Nov.
A quick analysis might boil this shift down to simple terms.
uncertain
analysis → boil → terms
In general, the focus on energy security will mean more renewable energy because it can be produced locally.
asserted
it → mean → energy
It will mean efficiency measures so that countries use less fuel and are less vulnerable to shocks.
asserted
countries → mean → shocks
Indeed, an energy crisis policy tracker from the IEA cites dozens of policies countries have laid out this year to do just that—from a push for biodiesel in Indonesia to incentives for consumers to install solar and storage in Bangladesh.
asserted
consumers → cite → Bangladesh
But Birol says the coming structural changes in energy will have even wider implications, shaping economic and geopolitical outcomes.
asserted
changes → say → outcomes
He cites economic diversification plans from oil-exporting countries, new trade partnerships, and investments in new technologies like next-generation batteries and nuclear power.
asserted
He → cite → batteries
All of which comes with an eye toward safeguarding energy supply from supply disruptions.
asserted
All → come → disruptions
"Instead of importing energy, they are deciding to build energy,” he told me.
asserted
he → import → me
Right now less than a quarter of final energy consumption comes from electricity.
asserted
quarter → come → electricity
The rest comes primarily from fuel consumption, think of petrol in vehicles, heating oil in homes, or gas in stoves.
asserted
rest → come → stoves
Relying on electricity, which tends to be produced relatively close to where it’s used, addresses energy security concerns.
asserted
it → rely → concerns
That’s even more the case when electricity is produced using renewables rather than imported fossil fuels.
asserted
electricity → ’ → fuels
The COP31 presidency is pushing countries to pledge to rely on electricity for 35% of their final energy consumption by 2035.
asserted
presidency → push → 2035
The world’s electricity grid still relies on fossil fuels to some degree—more or less so depending on the area—but today it’s typically cleaner than most fossil fuels.
asserted
it → rely → fuels
It will be even cleaner as renewable deployment continues.
asserted
deployment → continue → ?
Electrification also represents a structural shift.
asserted
Electrification → represent → shift
It promises to reshape trade relationships as countries need to either build clean technology supply chains or identify friendly partners to build relevant trade relationships.
asserted
countries → promise → relationships
It will spur investment in the power sector, advancing both big electric infrastructure projects and creating new companies that build innovative electricity technologies.
asserted
that → spur → technologies
In the IEA’s special report on electrification released in September, the agency says that annual global investment in electricity generation, battery storage, and grids could total $2.5 trillion by 2035 in a scenario where electrification really takes off.
uncertain
electrification → release → scenario
That’s a $1 trillion increase from last year.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
And electrification promises to unlock—or at least lessen—the stranglehold that oil and gas has on geopolitics while elevating the importance of another set of resources, including critical minerals.
asserted
oil → promise → minerals
“Two years ago, I said we are entering the age of electricity,” Birol told me.
asserted
Birol → say → me
“I can tell you today, when I look at today's numbers, we are in the age of electricity."
asserted
we → tell → electricity
The Aporia
