On Nov. 3, voters will decide who controls Congress while the war with Iran is still underway.
asserted
war → decide → Iran
What they will not decide is how that war gets paid for.
asserted
war → decide → What
Congress has scheduled that question for after they cast their ballots.
asserted
they → schedule → ballots
My previous op-ed for the Washington Examiner asked who has the power to declare war.
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who → ask → war
This one asks a quieter question: who has agreed to pay for it?
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who → ask → it
The answer describes a failure with no single villain, which is why it deserves a careful look.
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it → describe → look
What Congress did and did not do
The White House asked Congress on June 24 for $87.6 billion in supplemental funding.
asserted
House → do → funding
In July, the House adopted a $95 billion budget resolution by a vote of 216-214, a party-line vehicle that would allow up to roughly $73 billion for the war.
asserted
that → adopt → war
The House also passed the $1.1 trillion defense authorization bill, 216-212.
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House → pass → bill
Neither has become law.
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Neither → become → ?
Senate Democrats blocked the authorization bill, and Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has said the Senate lacks the votes for the $95 billion resolution as written, while floating the idea of repurposing it.
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Senate → block → it
Then came the stopgap.
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stopgap → come → ?
On Sept. 1, the House passed a bipartisan funding bill to keep the government open through Dec. 11.
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House → pass → Dec.
It did not include the emergency war supplemental the Pentagon had requested.
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Pentagon → include → supplemental
That expiration date falls five weeks after Election Day.
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date → fall → Day
In practical terms, the war-funding decision has been placed in the lame-duck session, after voters have made their choices and cannot react to them.
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voters → place → them
The meter keeps running
The war has not waited for Congress.
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war → run → Congress
The Pentagon has reported a cost of $43.6 billion as of Sept. 3, and has since set aside another $1.5 billion for fuel, bringing the figure to about $45.1 billion.
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Pentagon → report → billion
The Congressional Budget Office, using an earlier cutoff, estimated about $38 billion through Aug. 1.
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Office → use → Aug.
The gap reflects different dates and methods, but both point in the same direction.
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both → reflect → direction
Households are paying too, though not through the appropriations process.
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Households → pay → process
AAA puts the national average for gasoline at $4.49 a gallon, compared with $3.16 a year ago.
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AAA → put → 3.16
Researchers at Brown University estimate consumers have absorbed more than $100 billion in additional fuel costs.
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consumers → estimate → costs
And the outlook is uncertain: President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal on Sept. 26, and the Wall Street Journal has reported that bombing could resume after the midterms, which would add to the bill.
uncertain
which → reject → bill
Why the timing matters
Deferral is not neutral.
asserted
Deferral → matter → ?
According to Decision Desk HQ’s forecast as of Sept. 25, Democrats have about a 72% chance of winning the House and a 54% chance of winning the Senate.
uncertain
Democrats → accord → Senate
Forecasts move, and nobody should treat them as an indicator.
asserted
nobody → move → indicator
But if control of either chamber changes hands, the lawmakers who write the war’s funding bill in December may not be the ones voters were asked to judge on it in November.
uncertain
voters → change → November
That changes the incentives for everyone involved, and it makes a pre-election vote both harder to schedule and more valuable.
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vote → change → everyone
Deferral also narrows the choices.
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Deferral → narrow → choices
Every month without an approved plan is a month of spending that must eventually be covered by cuts elsewhere, new revenue, or added debt.
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that → approve → cuts
Waiting does not make any of those options cheaper.
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any → wait → options
It only postpones the moment when someone has to name one.
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someone → postpone → one
In most organizations, a program that has spent roughly $45 billion without an approved plan for paying for it would trigger an escalation, not a recess.
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that → spend → escalation
Finance professionals have a plain name for spending that outruns its authorization: a control failure.
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that → have → authorization
Both parties have their reasons.
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parties → have → reasons
Republican leaders want the war funded through a party-line process that the Senate has shown it will not accept.
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it → want → that
Democrats have used the defense bill to press for limits on the war, yet the stopgap they helped pass leaves the war’s funding unsettled.
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they → use → funding
Together they produce one result: a decision deferred until after voters have had their say.
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voters → produce → say
Any candidate for the House or Senate can answer three plain questions before November 3:
1. Will you fund the war, and at what level?
2.
asserted
you → answer → war
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
